Mick, you never disappoint. You are exactly on point with this one. The arrogance you describe is pervasive...especially in successful institutions. There is an underlying lack of imagination in conditions of change. I have observed that this is not isolated at the top! Whenever any of us feel comfortable, we should be asking ourselves what is going to bite us!!
Lack of humility also begets a lack of imagination and lack of understanding one’s adversary and their incentives and objectives. Regarding 7 Oct, to understand Israel thought Hamas was interested in governing than attacking Israel. That is a failure of imagination and understanding the true objective of Hamas. It would also seem a lack of humility also begets group think and self created false narratives at key decision levels such that as we read about now in Israel. Somehow the Netanyahu’s government convinced itself of a story that simply was not true (Hamas had been contained and was interested in governing) so as to carry out policies I the West Bank that were the goals of the hard right.
Did anybody bother to look at Gaza and see the money flowing in was not being used to improve much if anything? Bottom line is hubris leads us to see what we want to see...and not what is.
Strategic surprise is always a great force multiplier ... the capacity to take full advantage of it to the culminating point leads to strategic victory.
I would suggest the Israeli failure started with the belief that they could ignore the aspirations of the Palestinian people and continue with their apartheid political policies, destruction of any possibility for a two state solution with increasing settlement construction on the West Bank and keeping Gaza under horrible conditions with no hope of change. Underlying these policies was the belief that Israel was all powerful and could do anything they desired and that the Palestinians would just bend the knee. While I completely condemn what Hamas did, I can understand the despair of the Palestinian people which could lead to supporting evil leaders who were able to prey on their despair and lack of hope. Israel will never be safe and there will never be any lasting peace in the Middle East without some fulfillment of the aspirations of the Palestinians. If anyone should understand that, I would think it would be the Israelis.
Mick, you never disappoint. You are exactly on point with this one. The arrogance you describe is pervasive...especially in successful institutions. There is an underlying lack of imagination in conditions of change. I have observed that this is not isolated at the top! Whenever any of us feel comfortable, we should be asking ourselves what is going to bite us!!
Lack of humility also begets a lack of imagination and lack of understanding one’s adversary and their incentives and objectives. Regarding 7 Oct, to understand Israel thought Hamas was interested in governing than attacking Israel. That is a failure of imagination and understanding the true objective of Hamas. It would also seem a lack of humility also begets group think and self created false narratives at key decision levels such that as we read about now in Israel. Somehow the Netanyahu’s government convinced itself of a story that simply was not true (Hamas had been contained and was interested in governing) so as to carry out policies I the West Bank that were the goals of the hard right.
Did anybody bother to look at Gaza and see the money flowing in was not being used to improve much if anything? Bottom line is hubris leads us to see what we want to see...and not what is.
Contempt for the enemy is a dangerous thing.
Strategic surprise is always a great force multiplier ... the capacity to take full advantage of it to the culminating point leads to strategic victory.
I would suggest the Israeli failure started with the belief that they could ignore the aspirations of the Palestinian people and continue with their apartheid political policies, destruction of any possibility for a two state solution with increasing settlement construction on the West Bank and keeping Gaza under horrible conditions with no hope of change. Underlying these policies was the belief that Israel was all powerful and could do anything they desired and that the Palestinians would just bend the knee. While I completely condemn what Hamas did, I can understand the despair of the Palestinian people which could lead to supporting evil leaders who were able to prey on their despair and lack of hope. Israel will never be safe and there will never be any lasting peace in the Middle East without some fulfillment of the aspirations of the Palestinians. If anyone should understand that, I would think it would be the Israelis.
Great article as always Mick, never underestimate your opponent or normalise risk