The Rolling Middle East Earthquakes

Reflections on strategy and the future of warfare in the wake of my recent Israel visit.

Image: BBC

As Israel and Hezbollah agree to a ceasefire, I wanted to provide some strategic reflections based on my recent visit to the region.

Over the period 3-7 November, I was part of a small group of national security and military experts that visited Israel. Our program there included field visits to IDF headquarters in the north and south of the country, a visit to the IDF ground forces combat training centre, a short mission into Gaza, as well as a visit to an IDF Air Force base in the south of the country.

This is the third in my series of articles about the visit. You can read the first and second parts of my reflections about the visit here and here.

As I have highlighted during the series, there is much that might be learned from Israel’s response to the awful events of 7 October 2023, when Hamas terrorists breached the border wall in southern Israel and massacred Israeli civilians and military personnel. After my first visit to Israel a couple of months after the events of that day, I wrote in an article back in December 2023:

Many of our interlocutors, particularly those from intelligence and military backgrounds, described the events of 7 October, as an earthquake in Israel’s national security affairs…It is widely accepted that the Israel of 8 October is very different to the Israel of 6 October…While some elements of this changed environment might be gaining some clarity, it is much too soon to understand the full array of political, strategic, military and societal impacts that will ‘ripple out’ from 7 October.

With the remove of over 14 months since the Hamas massacre, more of the strategic impacts of this seismic event in Middle East affairs have become apparent. And while the strategic situation continues to evolve, including today’s announcement by Israel of a ceasefire with Hezbollah, my recent visit to Israel provided me with some strategic insights that I will reflect upon in this article.