If the ISW is correct and the Russian forces are becoming “brittle” in both Bakhmut and the south and that most of the Russian reserves are already committed, the introduction of cluster munitions and ATACMS may well result in the breakthroughs we have all been waiting for. If ATACMS and Storm Shadows can destroy the Kerch bridge and the four LOCs from Crimea to the southern front, Russian logistical problems may prove to be disastrous. What may really be brittle is Russian morale. The Wagner march on Moscow and sacking and killing of some of the more competent Russian generals cannot help. A breakthrough and rout around Bakhmut could be the catalyst that takes down Putin and the whole Russian army.
Key to keep in mind, I think, is that each sector of the front is defined by very different local conditions. The scale of the battlefield is difficult to get across in writing. They're all connected, but a collapse in one area won't necessarily mean all others are set to fail too.
This piece could have been written about Operation Overlord following the D-day invasions, slogging through hedgerows. If was not until about 6-8 weeks in that real fast movements started and Paris was not liberated until 2.5 months after D-Day. And that was with Allied air superiority. Patience and trust in the outstanding capabilities of the Ukrainian leadership and strategy. Progress is being made, though not in ways that are immediately tangible on a map.
If the ISW is correct and the Russian forces are becoming “brittle” in both Bakhmut and the south and that most of the Russian reserves are already committed, the introduction of cluster munitions and ATACMS may well result in the breakthroughs we have all been waiting for. If ATACMS and Storm Shadows can destroy the Kerch bridge and the four LOCs from Crimea to the southern front, Russian logistical problems may prove to be disastrous. What may really be brittle is Russian morale. The Wagner march on Moscow and sacking and killing of some of the more competent Russian generals cannot help. A breakthrough and rout around Bakhmut could be the catalyst that takes down Putin and the whole Russian army.
Let's hope so. At some point, one side will culminate. My expectation (and hope) is that the Russians will be first to do so.
Key to keep in mind, I think, is that each sector of the front is defined by very different local conditions. The scale of the battlefield is difficult to get across in writing. They're all connected, but a collapse in one area won't necessarily mean all others are set to fail too.
This piece could have been written about Operation Overlord following the D-day invasions, slogging through hedgerows. If was not until about 6-8 weeks in that real fast movements started and Paris was not liberated until 2.5 months after D-Day. And that was with Allied air superiority. Patience and trust in the outstanding capabilities of the Ukrainian leadership and strategy. Progress is being made, though not in ways that are immediately tangible on a map.
Agreed!