Ukraine Strikes Deeper

Ukraine’s evolving strategic strike complex and a special assessment of the challenges to its effectiveness in 2024 and 2025

Strategic-strike operations may be defined as those oriented on the principal sources of an enemy’s military, economic or political power. Strategic-strike operations have, as their primary focus, the goal of disabling the enemy’s center of gravity. Here the center of gravity is defined as those military, economic or political assets that, when denied to the enemy, will result in the loss of his ability or will to offer further resistance to friendly forces in achieving their strategic objectives.  Andrew Krepinevich, 2001

In the last 48 hours, it has emerged that Ukraine has conducted one of its longest-range strategic strikes yet.

Ukrainian military intelligence apparently conducted strikes on three airfields deep inside Russia. Ukrainian drones arrived at airfields in three regions: Saratov, Murmansk, and Ryazan. The strikes also included an attack against an oil refinery in Ryazan region. 

The strikes are claimed to have damaged a Russian Tu-22M3 long-range supersonic bomber at the Olenya airfield in the Murmansk area. This particular airfield lies about 1800 kilometres from Ukraine and is close to Russia’s border with northern Finland. The Tu-22M3 bombers are frequently used to launch missiles against Ukraine. Ukraine previously destroyed a Tu-22 in a strike on the Soltsky-2 airbase in 2023, and has also shot one down in April this year.

The Ukrainians have also recently struck key targets in Crimea. This included the significant damage to Russia’s last railway ferry in Crimea. This vessel has been used to transport military equipment to Russian forces in the occupied peninsula and thence to forces in southern Ukraine. This is part of the Ukrainian campaign to isolate Crimea and make it untenable for the Russian’s to sustain their military forces there.

Back in May 2023, I published an article that explored Ukrainian adaptation and how the Ukrainian Armed Forces had continuously learned and evolved their conduct of strike operations throughout this war. I updated this in an August 2023 article as well as in several articles this year.  

Today, I provide a comprehensive update on what is occurring with Ukraine’s multiple strike campaigns, and how they play a role in targeting Russia’s centre of gravity for the war. I also provide an assessment of the key challenges that Ukraine will face in the planning and conduct of strike operations against Russia for the remainder of this year, and into 2025.