I really enjoyed listening to your presentation. Thank you, Mick.
Your seven elements plus one necessary for Ukraine to achieve victory and enduring peace and prosperity make a lot of sense. We, the international community, will need to support Ukraine in these endeavours for many years to come.
We will also need to entice the Russians to give up their imperial ambitions while allaying their paranoia: this is probably the most difficult challenge if we are prevent yet another round of invasions over the coming decades. Drastic post-conflict punitive measures, while much deserved by Putin and his cabal, will only harden Russian attitudes in the future.
Thanks, Mick --- I hope soon to write a response about justice as an object of Ukrainian victory, with special allusion to the notion of restorative justice and the notion of amnesty.
Thank you Mick for your earnest work. Am learning from you. Enduring....... I think something more pragmatic will be needed. Greater Europe’s history and habits seem too fitful to expect much of anything to endure.
I agree with most of your elements but if the the first one (which I interpret to mean complete on-the-ground defeat and/or expulsion or withdrawal of all Russian or quasi-Russian forces from all Ukrainian territory) is required for there to be a “victory” there will almost certainly not be one. The Korean War led to a sort of victory for the South in the other elements of your seven, but definitely not in the first. There are many other examples. In other words a victory can be achieved in most terms whilst still having some borders re-drawn or a variation of that (including some sort of DMZ). South Korea and its people (for example) have had a brilliant 70 year march without a defeat of the north (or their original supporters in the Chinese) but with the security guarantees in place (one of your other valid elements)
Mr. Ryan, first I must apologize for my physical disability [odd way to start, no?]. Anyway, I found your podcast interesting - when I could understand it. My problem is that I am, shall we say, hearing impaired. A lot. I wear hearing aids and listen through headphones but I do miss a lot, even when I repeat various segments. Accordingly, I humbly request that you allow your script (I expect that you work from a script and do not do your podcast completely extemporaneously) so that I and others can read as we listen to your commentary.
Now, as to content, to the extent that I understood it. Many of the things that you said had occurred to me, and I am certain others, but only in disjointed and unrelated thoughts and not at all completely. Your podcast caused me to try to coherently put those thoughts together and I can see that, as you say, yours is a short commentary. I can further see that a much larger commentary is appropriate to really start to understand how the Ukrainians see this progressing and why they continue their campaign. Clearly, the definition of "victory" from a Russian (dare I say, Soviet?) side is clear: complete subjugation and dominance, physical destruction of Ukraine and societal destruction of the Ukrainian people. The definition of victory from the Ukrainian side is simultaneously much more simple and yet decidedly more complex, as you have identified. Again, worthy of further discussion.
Thank you, Sir, for your thoughtful commentary and, as noted, a written format would be useful to accompany the verbal format.
Excellent analysis. I agree with your seven point plan for Ukrainian victory. A couple of comments. In your “integration” point. For a lasting peace, I believe the Ukrainians must “integrate” the Russian speaking population in their territory into the social and political fabric. They cannot be made to feel that they are “second class citizens” without all the rights and privileges of the Ukrainian speaking portion of the population. In addition, attempts to “de-Russianize” this part of the population by denigrating their culture and language will just leave a part of their population near the borders with Russia vulnerable to future Russian propaganda and infiltration. Secondly, while I agree with your analysis that Russia must be made to give up its imperial and colonial ambitions, this is not a Ukrainian project. It can only be accomplished by the international community not allowing Russia back as an equal international political and economic partner until it does so. Any unilateral or even Ukrainian led attempt to do this would certainly backfire. Finally, to be successful after “victory”, Ukraine must tackle the destructive element of corruption. Their military seems to have risen above the Soviet model inculcated in their leaders, and the political and economic leaders of Ukraine must do the same for the country to be successful and not vulnerable to future attempts to destroy their democracy.
Thanks for explaining the forethought that goes into planning for actions. Your work and that of Timothy Snyder have greatly helped my understanding of the current circumstances in Ukraine. Well done to make this information available to those of us who are not trained in the military. Thanks for your work; it is appreciated. G. Kaines
Thought provoking. Regarding your last points I feel an Ukraine after ejecting Ru and demonstrably strong enough and supported by its allies enough to deter further Russian incursions would be sufficient for victory.
It seems repatriations, justice for war criminals and being able to trust Russia are highly unlikely unless the Russian state collapses and also if Ukrainians can live without Russian violence or the immediate threat that is actually plausible and would constitute a Victory in almost all Ukrainians view.
I get one should try and rally allies / the UN etc toward the wider aims but a Singaporean peace would seem fine given their neighborhood and even a South Korean quiet. Avoiding a Taiwanese defensive crouch should be achievable and desirable.
This reminds me of when I heard Haydn's Mass performed and the Dona Nobis Pacem exploded out of the choir: it was not a weak dreamy vision of lazy do-nothing peace; it was a virulent, joyous prophecy of peace through victory, finality and release: the peace bought through the resurrection of Christ and his defeat of Satan is mirrored (imperfectly perhaps) through the peace bought by victory over evil in this world.
I really enjoyed listening to your presentation. Thank you, Mick.
Your seven elements plus one necessary for Ukraine to achieve victory and enduring peace and prosperity make a lot of sense. We, the international community, will need to support Ukraine in these endeavours for many years to come.
We will also need to entice the Russians to give up their imperial ambitions while allaying their paranoia: this is probably the most difficult challenge if we are prevent yet another round of invasions over the coming decades. Drastic post-conflict punitive measures, while much deserved by Putin and his cabal, will only harden Russian attitudes in the future.
Thanks, Mick --- I hope soon to write a response about justice as an object of Ukrainian victory, with special allusion to the notion of restorative justice and the notion of amnesty.
Martin Arnold.
Thank you Mick for your earnest work. Am learning from you. Enduring....... I think something more pragmatic will be needed. Greater Europe’s history and habits seem too fitful to expect much of anything to endure.
I agree with most of your elements but if the the first one (which I interpret to mean complete on-the-ground defeat and/or expulsion or withdrawal of all Russian or quasi-Russian forces from all Ukrainian territory) is required for there to be a “victory” there will almost certainly not be one. The Korean War led to a sort of victory for the South in the other elements of your seven, but definitely not in the first. There are many other examples. In other words a victory can be achieved in most terms whilst still having some borders re-drawn or a variation of that (including some sort of DMZ). South Korea and its people (for example) have had a brilliant 70 year march without a defeat of the north (or their original supporters in the Chinese) but with the security guarantees in place (one of your other valid elements)
Mr. Ryan, first I must apologize for my physical disability [odd way to start, no?]. Anyway, I found your podcast interesting - when I could understand it. My problem is that I am, shall we say, hearing impaired. A lot. I wear hearing aids and listen through headphones but I do miss a lot, even when I repeat various segments. Accordingly, I humbly request that you allow your script (I expect that you work from a script and do not do your podcast completely extemporaneously) so that I and others can read as we listen to your commentary.
Now, as to content, to the extent that I understood it. Many of the things that you said had occurred to me, and I am certain others, but only in disjointed and unrelated thoughts and not at all completely. Your podcast caused me to try to coherently put those thoughts together and I can see that, as you say, yours is a short commentary. I can further see that a much larger commentary is appropriate to really start to understand how the Ukrainians see this progressing and why they continue their campaign. Clearly, the definition of "victory" from a Russian (dare I say, Soviet?) side is clear: complete subjugation and dominance, physical destruction of Ukraine and societal destruction of the Ukrainian people. The definition of victory from the Ukrainian side is simultaneously much more simple and yet decidedly more complex, as you have identified. Again, worthy of further discussion.
Thank you, Sir, for your thoughtful commentary and, as noted, a written format would be useful to accompany the verbal format.
Excellent analysis. I agree with your seven point plan for Ukrainian victory. A couple of comments. In your “integration” point. For a lasting peace, I believe the Ukrainians must “integrate” the Russian speaking population in their territory into the social and political fabric. They cannot be made to feel that they are “second class citizens” without all the rights and privileges of the Ukrainian speaking portion of the population. In addition, attempts to “de-Russianize” this part of the population by denigrating their culture and language will just leave a part of their population near the borders with Russia vulnerable to future Russian propaganda and infiltration. Secondly, while I agree with your analysis that Russia must be made to give up its imperial and colonial ambitions, this is not a Ukrainian project. It can only be accomplished by the international community not allowing Russia back as an equal international political and economic partner until it does so. Any unilateral or even Ukrainian led attempt to do this would certainly backfire. Finally, to be successful after “victory”, Ukraine must tackle the destructive element of corruption. Their military seems to have risen above the Soviet model inculcated in their leaders, and the political and economic leaders of Ukraine must do the same for the country to be successful and not vulnerable to future attempts to destroy their democracy.
Thanks for explaining the forethought that goes into planning for actions. Your work and that of Timothy Snyder have greatly helped my understanding of the current circumstances in Ukraine. Well done to make this information available to those of us who are not trained in the military. Thanks for your work; it is appreciated. G. Kaines
Thought provoking. Regarding your last points I feel an Ukraine after ejecting Ru and demonstrably strong enough and supported by its allies enough to deter further Russian incursions would be sufficient for victory.
It seems repatriations, justice for war criminals and being able to trust Russia are highly unlikely unless the Russian state collapses and also if Ukrainians can live without Russian violence or the immediate threat that is actually plausible and would constitute a Victory in almost all Ukrainians view.
I get one should try and rally allies / the UN etc toward the wider aims but a Singaporean peace would seem fine given their neighborhood and even a South Korean quiet. Avoiding a Taiwanese defensive crouch should be achievable and desirable.
This reminds me of when I heard Haydn's Mass performed and the Dona Nobis Pacem exploded out of the choir: it was not a weak dreamy vision of lazy do-nothing peace; it was a virulent, joyous prophecy of peace through victory, finality and release: the peace bought through the resurrection of Christ and his defeat of Satan is mirrored (imperfectly perhaps) through the peace bought by victory over evil in this world.