A Four Day Pause in Fighting

What Does this Mean for Israel’s Northern Gaza Operation and What Comes Next?

Image: @IDFOnline

Today, Israel has agreed to a four day pause in its operations in Gaza so that 50 hostages can be released. This is a deal that has been taking shape for some time. Officials from Qatar, the U.S., Israel and Hamas have apparently been working out the details for several days.

A statement released on the Prime Minister of Israel Twitter/X feed notes that:

The Israeli government is committed to the return of all abductees home. Tonight, the government approved the outline for the first stage of achieving this goal, according to which at least 50 abductees - women and children - will be released for 4 days, during which there will be a lull in the fighting. The release of every ten additional abductees will result in an additional day of respite.

Before the announcement, the Israeli Prime Minister also described how this pause should not be an indication that Israel’s operations in Gaza were at an end or were winding down. Netanyahu, before the cabinet meeting that endorsed the hostages for fighting pause deal, stated that:

I would like to start with something that should be self-evident: We are at war – and will continue the war.

And as Benny Gantz also stated just before the meeting to consider the hostage deal:

Unless the pressure continues, there will be no way to bring in the next groups [of hostages]…Therefore, after this phase is exhausted, the IDF will continue in full force to overwhelm Hamas and return the remaining hostages.

What does this four-day pause mean for the trajectory of the war?

The Current Situation

Currently, Israel has seized a large proportion of northern Gaza. After isolating Gaza from the south (and along the Mediterranean coast), the Israeli Defence Force has steadily advanced through northern Gaza. It is now advancing from east to west through Gaza, with secondary advances from the north east and from the southern cordon moving south.

The most recent update from War Mapper, below, shows the extent of Israel’s progress in seizing terrain in Gaza. This represents about 50% of northern Gaza now being occupied by Israeli forces since the beginning of their ground operation there several weeks ago.

Image: @War_Mapper

While Israeli ground forces have continued their combat operations to clear Hamas above the ground, they have also been involved in a very complex operation to identify Hamas tunnels and either clear the tunnels or to seal them through destroying their entrances. Various sources estimate that there between 250 and 500 kilometres of these subterranean passages, storerooms, accommodation and command centres under Gaza. And while Israel has developed specialised units, technologies and tactics, to deal with the tunnels, often it is simpler to just seal the tunnel rather than clear it. This approach obviously poses a risk if hostages are being held in them.

One of the world’s leading experts on urban operations, John Spencer, described the challenges of the Hamas tunnels last month:

There is no uniform solution to the problem that tunnels will present Israeli ground force, undoubtedly one of the biggest they will face in Gaza. Dealing with each tunnel will require a situation-dependent mix of capabilities. But above all, given the scale and complexity of the underground infrastructure in Gaza, one thing is certain: overcoming the challenges posed by tunnels will require a lot of time.

So, what progress is being made by the Israeli Defence Force in their northern Gaza operation? Several days ago, the Israeli Defence Force's Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi noted that Israel is “close to dismantling the military system in the northern Gaza Strip.”

What Will Happen During the Pause?

Notwithstanding this reported progress, a range of activities will be taking place during the four-day pause.

First and foremost, Israel will be focussed on extracting its 50 hostages over the four day period and hoping that the incentive of ‘one days pause for each additional ten hostages released’ proves attractive to the Hamas terrorists. Exactly how the handover of hostages will be achieved remains unclear. However, Israel has undertaken previous exchanges of hostages and Israeli prisoners in the past. The processes used previously are sure to inform how hostages are handed back to Israel in the coming days.

While the Israeli Defence Force may not be conducting offensive operations during the four-day pause, they certainly will not be idle. Their first priority will be rest and resupply for the tens of thousands of soldiers who are participating in the operation in northern Gaza. It will have been a tough few weeks for these soldiers, and the opportunity to rest and maybe have a shower, will be appreciated.

At the same time, these soldiers will be getting resupplied with all manner of requirements from food to fuel to ammunition. And, for those forces that don’t expect to be moving at the end of the four day pause, they will be enhancing their defences against Hamas attacks.

Israeli military leaders will use the respite in fighting to plan and wargame their next steps in Gaza. Around 50% of northern Gaza remains to be cleared, and there is likely to be some hard ground combat ahead for the multiple Israeli brigades currently fighting there. From Platoon leaders to Brigade commanders, as well those conducting support operations in logistics, communications, electronic warfare, engineering and surveillance, many will be planning and anticipating the next phase of northern Gaza operations.

The four days will be an opportunity for an intelligence soak of northern Gaza. While the Israeli’s have good tactical reconnaissance on the ground and in the air, aerial bombing and a changing forward line of Israeli troops means that the tactical picture constantly evolves. The pause will allow time for the reconnaissance and surveillance system – including the extensive human intelligence network - to catch up, and update ground forces on the state of northern Gaza and possible locations of Hamas fighters, and underground facilities.

There are almost certainly many more Hamas tunnels that are yet to be discovered. Potentially, some of these run under the Israeli forces that are cordoning off northern Gaza. If there are, Hamas will use the pause to evacuate its wounded and move more fighters and supplies into the north.

Image: @IDFOnline

Despite the availability of very sophisticated technologies in combat and in surveillance operations, human intelligence has been an important part of Israel’s Gaza operations. This recent article in The Times of Israel provides a useful insight into these operations, describing how:

The IDF’s Military Intelligence Directorate’s Unit 504 — which specializes in HUMINT (human intelligence) — has questioned a total of some 500 Palestinians and has made millions of calls to civilians to evacuate northern Gaza since the beginning of the fighting in the Strip…terror operatives and suspects provided the interrogators with the locations of Hamas tunnel networks and weapons depots …Each and every investigation leads to the incrimination of new sites, and the human intelligence that emerges.

Rarely do commanders get a short pause to catch their breath and reassess their immediate future. The pause does mean that Israel is squandering the momentum it has generated in northern Gaza in the past few weeks. But good leaders at all levels will be making the most of this opportunity. Unfortunately, so will Hamas terrorists.

The Israeli Defence Force is very likely to also use this time to convince more civilians in Gaza to evacuate. The Israelis have periodically provided secure routes for civilians to move south out of the combat zone. We should expect that Israel will do this in the coming days as well.

The respite might also be an opportunity for Israel to consider how it integrates combat operations with its strategic messaging.

One would hope that the government of Israel might use the respite in fighting to think about what happens to northern Gaza after the fighting is over there. The fighting has resulted in large scale civilian casualties as well as damage to a large proportion of structures in northern Gaza. This graphic from the Washington Post shows the amount of damage. At some point, the government of Israel will need a plan for the future governance and reconstruction of Gaza.

Earlier this month, Benny Gantz told a news conference that:

Once the Gaza area is safe, and the northern area will be safe, and the Judea & Samaria region will calm down – we will [go] down and review an alternative mechanism for Gaza. I do not know what it will be. But I do know what cannot be there – An active presence of Hamas with governance and military capabilities.

The Israeli Prime Minister is yet to offer a coherent vision for what comes after military operations in northern Gaza. As Max Boot wrote in a recent commentary:

Netanyahu…has been desperately triangulating between the demands of the international community not to reoccupy Gaza and the demands of his right-wing coalition not to empower the Palestinian Authority. He has said Israel will not occupy Gaza but plans to assume “overall security responsibility” for the territory. He has also said he won’t turn it over to the Palestinian Authority. That is an incomprehensible mishmash.

And not only does the government of Israel need a plan for post combat operations. It also needs a more urgent plan to balance achieving its military objectives with getting on the front foot with its strategic messaging. As Max Boot noted in his recent commentary, “Israel is winning the ground war while losing the battle for international public opinion.”

This four-day pause might be a good opportunity for the government of Israel to commence that planning.

What Happens After Four Days?

There is little mystery about what will occur at the end of the four day pause.

We should expect the Israeli’s to come out of the pause in force. These four days offer the chance to rest and reinforce the brigades in Gaza. They should be fresher and able to launch rapid attacks to regenerate the momentum lost as a result of the pause. As such, I would expect the Israelis to surge their operations as soon as the pause is over so that the IDF can induce tactical shock in the Hamas fighters remaining in northern Gaza and re-seize the initiative.

At the same time, planning is probably well advanced for Israel’s options once it concludes its major combat operations in northern Gaza. It has several options:

First, Israel could commence a subsequent operation in southern Gaza. Given that Khan Younis is another known area where Hamas leaders and their forces have been concentrated in the past, the Israeli’s may not see northern Gaza meeting their threshold for the destruction of Gaza. Additionally, Hamas continues to launch rockets from southern Gaza.

As the map below shows, Israel has created small ‘cut outs’ in southern Gaza which it has occupied in the last few weeks. These could provide assembly areas for any Israeli incursion. Or, they could provide a deception plan with Israeli forces in the north reorienting and moving south. Either way, Israel has multiple options if it wants to move into the south in force.

Image: @War_Mapper

Another option for Israel is that it might finish its northern Gaza operation and then issue an ultimatum to Hamas before any southern operation. Such an ultimatum might include handing over hostages and the surrender of Hamas leadership and anyone who took part in the 7 October atrocities. However, given Hamas has continued to issue belligerent statements that it will repeat the events of 7 October, a Hamas capitulation would be a very low probability.

A final option might be that Israel is forced into a longer ceasefire after the northern Gaza operation. It is no secret that even Israel’s staunchest supporters are uncomfortable with the level of civilian casualties in northern Gaza. There are no signs yet however that this might occur. While U.S. officials, including White House National Security Spokesman John Kirby yesterday, have asserted that civilian casualties in Gaza are too high, there are no open signs of a ceasefire being forced upon Israel during or after its northern Gaza operation.

And, as Benny Gantz noted last month, “the war in the south could take months to complete.” While not a direct reference to operations in southern Gaza, Israel is certain to have at least planned an operation for southern Gaza for the near future.

More recently, Israeli military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said at a briefing last week that the Israeli offensive “will happen wherever Hamas exists, including in the south of the strip.”

The Job Isn’t Done

A report at Politico, published after the hostage deal was announced, notes that at the conclusion of the hostage release and four day pause, the ‘job is not done’:

The job is not done. Around 200 hostages — men, Israel Defense Forces soldiers, dual and foreign nationals — will remain behind, though the U.S. and Israel hold out hope some of them will immediately follow the initial wave.

The large number of hostages still being held by Hamas will have a fundamental impact on what comes next for Israel’s Gaza operation. Its stated strategic objectives – the return of all hostages and the destruction of Hamas – will remain incomplete after the pause. As such, we should expect the fighting to resume with equal or even intensified ferocity once the pause is over.