Why do you think I want to reward aggression? My god, one can't have a balanced opinion on Substack lately without being accused of whatever.
What I mean is that you saying this, or even Europe saying this, doesn't mean anything. Launchers, rockets, drones, tanks, MTB, planes - these all mean things.
I'm feeling the same way I felt watching the US drawdown in Vietnam, and the build up before the second Iraq war-watching a train wreck in slow motion. The Vietnam situation was the culmination of US mistakes since the end of WWI and given the corruption and ineptitude of the ARVN (Army Republic of Vietnam) was perhaps unavoidable except at a cost we could no longer pay, but still painful for a veteran of that conflict to watch. Iraq2 was an obvious disaster in the making and a completely unnecessary (thus avoidable) war of choice. Again, as a war veteran, painful to watch the American chicken hawks starting a war without appreciating the horrific cost of such a move. The right policy in Ukraine seems to me to be blindingly obvious. Fight Putin now when he's weak, or later when he or his successors are stronger and perhaps in an active alliance with China. Can't understand why the Europeans are passing on the chance to defeat Russia and guarentee their security for at least one generation.
Putin wants Ukraine and Crimea for reasons no one is talking about: Russia's economy is based on extraction/production of fossil fuels and mineral resources. Russia continues to sell low and moderate enriched uranium to the US and the West, about $1 billion worth to the US alone, and the Gazprom pipeline across Ukraine is still operating, through which billions of dollars worth of natural gas and potentially oil flows to Europe - oddly enough, being in an active war zone, this pipeline (unlike the rather more inaccessible Nordstream pipelines) has never come under shell or rocket fire. Most of this extraction/production activity is now in Russia's Far East and Siberia - and that's where a lot of Russia's heavy machinery production is, in places like Omsk, Khabarovsk, Chelyabinsk, and Barnaul, as well.
And this region is highly vulnerable to Chinese incursion - all it takes is a quick move over the Amur river - you can see China from Omsk. And the Chinese have attempted it before, in the 1970s, when Chinese forces got nearly to Irkutsk, before the Soviet Army threw them back across the border. The Russian Army isn't close to being as strong as the Soviet Army, and the Chinese PLA is far, far stronger than the PLA of 50 years ago. And the Chinese have redrawn their maps and have laid claims to this Far East and Siberian territory, and perhaps it is a matter of time before the Chinese will figure that the Russian Army has been attritted sufficiently for the Chinese to make a move which will be highly advantageous to them - right now they import about 85% of their energy resources, a lot from Russia.
Ukraine is rich with fossil fuels and rare earth mineral resources - the second largest stock of lithium ore in Europe, amongst other rare earth minerals, especially in Eastern Ukraine (and stretching across to Romania), and in Crimea and in the Black Sea south of Crimea and Odessa - there has been a lot of exploratory drilling going on in this area and has been since 2014. Turkey is active in this as well. And these parts of Ukraine and Crimea have warmwater port facilities (at Sevastopol, and Feodosia on Crimea, and Mariupol and Taganrog on the Sea of Azov adjacent to the Black Sea), unlike Vladivostok, so transport of resources can go on year round - and there is no threat of Chinese incursion. So there are very good reasons, that Putin, with his PhD in Natural Resource Economics (1997) from the St Petersburg Mining University, wants Ukraine and Crimea, so badly.
And this could be part of a peace deal, because, as Putin has found out, the infrastructure for extraction, processing, storage, and transshipment of fossil fuels and minerals (lithium burns in air an makes for spectacular fires which can't be put out until the lithium is gone) is highly vulnerable to rocket attack - and without a peace deal in place Putin will be unable to use these resources even though he may have captured the land. So there are these considerations as well that could come into play...
Yes, Eastern Russia is ripe for China to pluck, but they can take it anytime they want. I suspect their plan is to wait until they have neutralized the West and don't need the Russians as allies anymore.
Russia needs China far, far more than China needs Russia- after all, the Russian Army still hasn't been able to take much more of Ukraine than it had in 2014 - after nearly three years of fighting. I surmise that the Chinese estimation of the Russian Army is on the order of a sick joke. There may already have been significant Chinese moves which have taken place - they are the ultimate opportunists. Dugin was right about the Chinese.
The only hope for Ukraine (and it’s a possibility) is that Russia crashes economically, real hurt is felt by the populace and the oligarchs and a coup topples Putin. This is Putin’s war and a growing percentage of the population must be wondering if it is at all worth it. A cease fire will probably keep Putin in power - at least in the short term. His sovereign wealth fund is reportedly running low as is his WWII supply of armored vehicles and his factories can’t turn out enough to replace his losses. Russia will not find it easy to return its war time economy to its former state and I doubt the EU will be quick to purchase Russia oil - if the fields can be brought back to pre war levels without Western expertise, money and expertise. If (and it is a big if) the West keeps sanctions in place, Putin and Russia are “toast” economically in the long term. Unfortunately it is beginning to look like Germany, Great Britain and France may be in a similar position. There are a lot of moving parts to this and the election of Trump and capture of the Senate and House by the Republicans adds a large further cloud of uncertainty. The possible effect of China’s growing economic disaster is another factor that cannot be discounted.
Thank you for sharing your views Mick. I wish I could find something to be reassured about in these circumstances, but I agree that your conclusion is probably correct.
For ongoing or increasing US support a lot is going to depend upon Trump's pick for his cabinet posts. His choice of Rubio for Secretary of State, Waltz for National Security Advisor and Wiles as Chief of Staff show a degree of competency that is absent from the majority of the other nominees. There may or may not be a desire within this group to assist Ukraine, but at least the Ukrainians won't die wondering as happened with the Biden Administration.
As you said, the combined GDP of NATO members far exceeds that of Russia and it is only the will that is missing. NATO should be the one making the demands, not Putin/Russia. There certainly appears to be a consensus around how badly Russia is being impacted by the war & sanctions and its ability to carry on with the war for another 12-24 months. Give the $300 Billion in frozen assets to Ukraine as Russia is not going to pay any reparations or face any tribunals.
With short/medium term help from the US in the supply of weapons & munitions, Europe is more than capable of taking the fight to Russia. Sanctions by all would have to be maintained and enforced. A greater sharing of the burden would allow the US to focus more on Asia if necessary.
I do not think that freezing the conflict, buffer zones or a peace keeping force would work, but I would like to add one more option, although I'm sure it has already been studied. First, kick Russia out of Ukraine (a big first - by force and sanctions). Allow Ukraine to join NATO, but do not allow NATO troops on Ukrainian soil. This would give Russia the buffer it is always on about and give Ukraine the security guarantees it is looking for. Perhaps even Belarus could even go down the same path if it wants to at some point in the future. Neither Lukashenko or Putin will live forever.
Putin loves an adversary’s weakness. Time to admit Ukraine to NATO.
Here’s a counter-proposal: RU surrenders unconditionally, borders are restored to pre-2014, a 20 km buffer zone is created inside RU.
It's a nice proposal, but come on, I can wish myself the Moon, but it won't happen.
Aggression shall not be rewarded. Deal with it.
Why do you think I want to reward aggression? My god, one can't have a balanced opinion on Substack lately without being accused of whatever.
What I mean is that you saying this, or even Europe saying this, doesn't mean anything. Launchers, rockets, drones, tanks, MTB, planes - these all mean things.
I'm feeling the same way I felt watching the US drawdown in Vietnam, and the build up before the second Iraq war-watching a train wreck in slow motion. The Vietnam situation was the culmination of US mistakes since the end of WWI and given the corruption and ineptitude of the ARVN (Army Republic of Vietnam) was perhaps unavoidable except at a cost we could no longer pay, but still painful for a veteran of that conflict to watch. Iraq2 was an obvious disaster in the making and a completely unnecessary (thus avoidable) war of choice. Again, as a war veteran, painful to watch the American chicken hawks starting a war without appreciating the horrific cost of such a move. The right policy in Ukraine seems to me to be blindingly obvious. Fight Putin now when he's weak, or later when he or his successors are stronger and perhaps in an active alliance with China. Can't understand why the Europeans are passing on the chance to defeat Russia and guarentee their security for at least one generation.
Very spot on, and very sad. Before this war I still thought of Europe as a major political block, but after the last 2.5 years…
Putin wants Ukraine and Crimea for reasons no one is talking about: Russia's economy is based on extraction/production of fossil fuels and mineral resources. Russia continues to sell low and moderate enriched uranium to the US and the West, about $1 billion worth to the US alone, and the Gazprom pipeline across Ukraine is still operating, through which billions of dollars worth of natural gas and potentially oil flows to Europe - oddly enough, being in an active war zone, this pipeline (unlike the rather more inaccessible Nordstream pipelines) has never come under shell or rocket fire. Most of this extraction/production activity is now in Russia's Far East and Siberia - and that's where a lot of Russia's heavy machinery production is, in places like Omsk, Khabarovsk, Chelyabinsk, and Barnaul, as well.
And this region is highly vulnerable to Chinese incursion - all it takes is a quick move over the Amur river - you can see China from Omsk. And the Chinese have attempted it before, in the 1970s, when Chinese forces got nearly to Irkutsk, before the Soviet Army threw them back across the border. The Russian Army isn't close to being as strong as the Soviet Army, and the Chinese PLA is far, far stronger than the PLA of 50 years ago. And the Chinese have redrawn their maps and have laid claims to this Far East and Siberian territory, and perhaps it is a matter of time before the Chinese will figure that the Russian Army has been attritted sufficiently for the Chinese to make a move which will be highly advantageous to them - right now they import about 85% of their energy resources, a lot from Russia.
Ukraine is rich with fossil fuels and rare earth mineral resources - the second largest stock of lithium ore in Europe, amongst other rare earth minerals, especially in Eastern Ukraine (and stretching across to Romania), and in Crimea and in the Black Sea south of Crimea and Odessa - there has been a lot of exploratory drilling going on in this area and has been since 2014. Turkey is active in this as well. And these parts of Ukraine and Crimea have warmwater port facilities (at Sevastopol, and Feodosia on Crimea, and Mariupol and Taganrog on the Sea of Azov adjacent to the Black Sea), unlike Vladivostok, so transport of resources can go on year round - and there is no threat of Chinese incursion. So there are very good reasons, that Putin, with his PhD in Natural Resource Economics (1997) from the St Petersburg Mining University, wants Ukraine and Crimea, so badly.
And this could be part of a peace deal, because, as Putin has found out, the infrastructure for extraction, processing, storage, and transshipment of fossil fuels and minerals (lithium burns in air an makes for spectacular fires which can't be put out until the lithium is gone) is highly vulnerable to rocket attack - and without a peace deal in place Putin will be unable to use these resources even though he may have captured the land. So there are these considerations as well that could come into play...
Yes, Eastern Russia is ripe for China to pluck, but they can take it anytime they want. I suspect their plan is to wait until they have neutralized the West and don't need the Russians as allies anymore.
Russia needs China far, far more than China needs Russia- after all, the Russian Army still hasn't been able to take much more of Ukraine than it had in 2014 - after nearly three years of fighting. I surmise that the Chinese estimation of the Russian Army is on the order of a sick joke. There may already have been significant Chinese moves which have taken place - they are the ultimate opportunists. Dugin was right about the Chinese.
The only hope for Ukraine (and it’s a possibility) is that Russia crashes economically, real hurt is felt by the populace and the oligarchs and a coup topples Putin. This is Putin’s war and a growing percentage of the population must be wondering if it is at all worth it. A cease fire will probably keep Putin in power - at least in the short term. His sovereign wealth fund is reportedly running low as is his WWII supply of armored vehicles and his factories can’t turn out enough to replace his losses. Russia will not find it easy to return its war time economy to its former state and I doubt the EU will be quick to purchase Russia oil - if the fields can be brought back to pre war levels without Western expertise, money and expertise. If (and it is a big if) the West keeps sanctions in place, Putin and Russia are “toast” economically in the long term. Unfortunately it is beginning to look like Germany, Great Britain and France may be in a similar position. There are a lot of moving parts to this and the election of Trump and capture of the Senate and House by the Republicans adds a large further cloud of uncertainty. The possible effect of China’s growing economic disaster is another factor that cannot be discounted.
Thank you for sharing your views Mick. I wish I could find something to be reassured about in these circumstances, but I agree that your conclusion is probably correct.
For ongoing or increasing US support a lot is going to depend upon Trump's pick for his cabinet posts. His choice of Rubio for Secretary of State, Waltz for National Security Advisor and Wiles as Chief of Staff show a degree of competency that is absent from the majority of the other nominees. There may or may not be a desire within this group to assist Ukraine, but at least the Ukrainians won't die wondering as happened with the Biden Administration.
As you said, the combined GDP of NATO members far exceeds that of Russia and it is only the will that is missing. NATO should be the one making the demands, not Putin/Russia. There certainly appears to be a consensus around how badly Russia is being impacted by the war & sanctions and its ability to carry on with the war for another 12-24 months. Give the $300 Billion in frozen assets to Ukraine as Russia is not going to pay any reparations or face any tribunals.
With short/medium term help from the US in the supply of weapons & munitions, Europe is more than capable of taking the fight to Russia. Sanctions by all would have to be maintained and enforced. A greater sharing of the burden would allow the US to focus more on Asia if necessary.
I do not think that freezing the conflict, buffer zones or a peace keeping force would work, but I would like to add one more option, although I'm sure it has already been studied. First, kick Russia out of Ukraine (a big first - by force and sanctions). Allow Ukraine to join NATO, but do not allow NATO troops on Ukrainian soil. This would give Russia the buffer it is always on about and give Ukraine the security guarantees it is looking for. Perhaps even Belarus could even go down the same path if it wants to at some point in the future. Neither Lukashenko or Putin will live forever.