Netanyahu should have known that in trying to end Israel's democracy he was sowing dragon's teeth. As Israel alienates itself from international and particularly US support (even among American Jews!) the resulting weakness invites these sorts of attacks.
For those of us who remember what an idealistic country Israel used to be, there is only sadness.
From a military perspective Hamas is likely to lose in a straight up fight with the IDF. But as you note, Mick, it is also a powerful political statement. At this point, no matter how Israel reacts, they are in a bad political/PR position. Netanyahu’s vision of Israel is seen as anti-democratic, and the next version of an apartheid regime around the world. If they hold back, they will be seen as weak and invite more Hamas action. If they respond with overwhelming force and inflict civilian casualties in Gaza and elsewhere as much as hitting Hamas, they will only dig themselves a deeper hole in world public opinion as enforcing an authoritarian, apartheid regime. So no matter the purely military outcome, they will lose further standing in the world making it a major political victory for Hamas either way.
Unfortunately, I have to agree with your assessment on how Israel has and continues to view Palestinians. Israel is at this point a failed state as a pluralistic democracy. Arab citizens and secular Jews are seen a problematic and second class citizens in the eyes of the current Netanyahu govt and coalition. This make me wonder how much Israel, once United in its survival, will be United by this Hamas action, or will society further splinter with finger pointing at Likud for being this on to the entire nation.
The other strategic objective, especially for Iran, is to try to derail the ongoing process of engagement and the normalizing of relations between Israel and the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia. All those states will have to publicly condemn Israel and support the Palestinians (I think Saudi Arabia already has). An Israeli ground incursion into Gaza, which I can't see them not doing, will exacerbate this. Iran is, of course, using Hamas and the Palestinians in this case to achieve its strategic objective of preventing a stronger Middle East coalition against it.
I assume that the attack is also to shine the light back on the plight of Palestinians as more and more Arab gov'ts normalize relations with Israel, and turn their backs on the Palestianians whom they used to at least claim to care about.
The situation in Gaza cannot be allowed to go on. Israel must break the cycle of violence by eliminating Hamas as a military force.
I see extremely dark days for the people of Gaza. Israel might end up being a permanent occupying force in the Strip.
Here I was, thinking 2023 is starting to ramp down without further surprises (on top of the already going things)…
Hamas might be counting on a massive Israeli response to upset the ongoing talks between US, Israel and the Saudis
Thank you. An excellent overview of shocking events, with good historical perspective.
Netanyahu should have known that in trying to end Israel's democracy he was sowing dragon's teeth. As Israel alienates itself from international and particularly US support (even among American Jews!) the resulting weakness invites these sorts of attacks.
For those of us who remember what an idealistic country Israel used to be, there is only sadness.
From a military perspective Hamas is likely to lose in a straight up fight with the IDF. But as you note, Mick, it is also a powerful political statement. At this point, no matter how Israel reacts, they are in a bad political/PR position. Netanyahu’s vision of Israel is seen as anti-democratic, and the next version of an apartheid regime around the world. If they hold back, they will be seen as weak and invite more Hamas action. If they respond with overwhelming force and inflict civilian casualties in Gaza and elsewhere as much as hitting Hamas, they will only dig themselves a deeper hole in world public opinion as enforcing an authoritarian, apartheid regime. So no matter the purely military outcome, they will lose further standing in the world making it a major political victory for Hamas either way.
Unfortunately, I have to agree with your assessment on how Israel has and continues to view Palestinians. Israel is at this point a failed state as a pluralistic democracy. Arab citizens and secular Jews are seen a problematic and second class citizens in the eyes of the current Netanyahu govt and coalition. This make me wonder how much Israel, once United in its survival, will be United by this Hamas action, or will society further splinter with finger pointing at Likud for being this on to the entire nation.
The other strategic objective, especially for Iran, is to try to derail the ongoing process of engagement and the normalizing of relations between Israel and the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia. All those states will have to publicly condemn Israel and support the Palestinians (I think Saudi Arabia already has). An Israeli ground incursion into Gaza, which I can't see them not doing, will exacerbate this. Iran is, of course, using Hamas and the Palestinians in this case to achieve its strategic objective of preventing a stronger Middle East coalition against it.
I only just found out about this due to your post. Mick, thank you for covering this.
I assume that the attack is also to shine the light back on the plight of Palestinians as more and more Arab gov'ts normalize relations with Israel, and turn their backs on the Palestianians whom they used to at least claim to care about.
Israel and the US supply military aid to Azerbaijan, which just conducted an ethnic cleansing of Christian Armenians: https://yuribezmenov.substack.com/p/artsakh-christian-armenian-genocide-azerbaijan
It was never a good idea for Jews to move en masse to the Middle East. It was never safe for us.
What I don’t understand is how Israel’s much-vaunted missile defence system appears to be relatively unsuccessful during this attack.
The boot is on the other foot now.