The history of Israel/Palestine is that there will be no military solution that creates longstanding peace. But it is unclear what the solution can be so long as Israel wants to be a democracy, wants to be a Jewish state, and wants to control all of Israel (including West Bank and Gaza). As has been said before, it cannot have all 3 - the path it has been on most recently is away from being a democracy. Another solution to "The situation in Gaza cannot be allowed to go on" is to allow the people in Gaza to vote to become their own country, independent of Israel..... there are lots of potential solutions, but none that Israelis and Palestinians agree upon
When the United Nations divided Palestine into Jewish and Arab sectors, the division was accepted by Jewish leaders, but not by the Arab leadership and war resulted, the first of many.
Today there exists a heavily armed Israel, a nuclear power.
I think that Israel will take the required steps in Gaza to end the violence once and for all. Many Arab militants will die and most of the rest will flee. The population will be disarmed.
Cogent analysis. Surely Israel should hire you for help. It probably never occurred to them to try to eliminate Hamas as a military force. I mean, they could have tried to do it in Operation Summer Rains in June of 06. Or Op Autumn Clouds in Nov 2006. Or Operation Hot Winter in Feb 2008. Or Operation Cast Lead in Dec 2008. Or Operation Returning Echo in Mar 2012. Or Operation Pillar of Defense in Nov 2012. Or Operation Protective Edge in July 2014. Or Operation Black Belt in Nov 2019. Or Operation Breaking Dawn in Aug 2022. Or Operation Shield and Arrow in May of 2023. But they didn't because they didn't have your help to let them see that Hamas was a problem.
"Israel might end up being a permanent occupying force in the Strip". Another brilliant insight. Of course Israel might permanently occupy the Strip, as they did from 1967 to 2005. Why did Israel withdraw in 2005? Do you remember?
As long as Israel thinks that they can unilaterally decide that there will never be an independent state for the Palestinians then the Palestinians will have nothing to lose by launching terror attacks on Israel. Hamas is awful, yet Netenyahu seems determined to empower them by refusing to even talk to the PA on meaningful terms.
Netanyahu should have known that in trying to end Israel's democracy he was sowing dragon's teeth. As Israel alienates itself from international and particularly US support (even among American Jews!) the resulting weakness invites these sorts of attacks.
For those of us who remember what an idealistic country Israel used to be, there is only sadness.
From a military perspective Hamas is likely to lose in a straight up fight with the IDF. But as you note, Mick, it is also a powerful political statement. At this point, no matter how Israel reacts, they are in a bad political/PR position. Netanyahu’s vision of Israel is seen as anti-democratic, and the next version of an apartheid regime around the world. If they hold back, they will be seen as weak and invite more Hamas action. If they respond with overwhelming force and inflict civilian casualties in Gaza and elsewhere as much as hitting Hamas, they will only dig themselves a deeper hole in world public opinion as enforcing an authoritarian, apartheid regime. So no matter the purely military outcome, they will lose further standing in the world making it a major political victory for Hamas either way.
Fair observation and certainly an analysis that Hamas will have carried out too. But the heart of the problem is Israel's recent unwillingness to see Palestinians as much more than wolves to be kept locked up. Israel is an island in an Arab land and rightfully (based on history) sees itself as surrounded; however, its own-goals on the Palestinian file are piling up and it is pretty clear now that to a fair degree it has itself to blame for such Palestinian acts.
Unfortunately, I have to agree with your assessment on how Israel has and continues to view Palestinians. Israel is at this point a failed state as a pluralistic democracy. Arab citizens and secular Jews are seen a problematic and second class citizens in the eyes of the current Netanyahu govt and coalition. This make me wonder how much Israel, once United in its survival, will be United by this Hamas action, or will society further splinter with finger pointing at Likud for being this on to the entire nation.
Did you hear that noise? It is the roar of international indignation, demanding that Israel stop the bloodshed against the oppressed Palestinians. Expect it in about 3 days time.
The other strategic objective, especially for Iran, is to try to derail the ongoing process of engagement and the normalizing of relations between Israel and the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia. All those states will have to publicly condemn Israel and support the Palestinians (I think Saudi Arabia already has). An Israeli ground incursion into Gaza, which I can't see them not doing, will exacerbate this. Iran is, of course, using Hamas and the Palestinians in this case to achieve its strategic objective of preventing a stronger Middle East coalition against it.
I assume that the attack is also to shine the light back on the plight of Palestinians as more and more Arab gov'ts normalize relations with Israel, and turn their backs on the Palestianians whom they used to at least claim to care about.
The situation in Gaza cannot be allowed to go on. Israel must break the cycle of violence by eliminating Hamas as a military force.
I see extremely dark days for the people of Gaza. Israel might end up being a permanent occupying force in the Strip.
The history of Israel/Palestine is that there will be no military solution that creates longstanding peace. But it is unclear what the solution can be so long as Israel wants to be a democracy, wants to be a Jewish state, and wants to control all of Israel (including West Bank and Gaza). As has been said before, it cannot have all 3 - the path it has been on most recently is away from being a democracy. Another solution to "The situation in Gaza cannot be allowed to go on" is to allow the people in Gaza to vote to become their own country, independent of Israel..... there are lots of potential solutions, but none that Israelis and Palestinians agree upon
An intelligent and thoughtful reply. Thanks.
When the United Nations divided Palestine into Jewish and Arab sectors, the division was accepted by Jewish leaders, but not by the Arab leadership and war resulted, the first of many.
Today there exists a heavily armed Israel, a nuclear power.
I think that Israel will take the required steps in Gaza to end the violence once and for all. Many Arab militants will die and most of the rest will flee. The population will be disarmed.
What lies beyond that is anyone’s guess.
This word does not appear in my post.
Cogent analysis. Surely Israel should hire you for help. It probably never occurred to them to try to eliminate Hamas as a military force. I mean, they could have tried to do it in Operation Summer Rains in June of 06. Or Op Autumn Clouds in Nov 2006. Or Operation Hot Winter in Feb 2008. Or Operation Cast Lead in Dec 2008. Or Operation Returning Echo in Mar 2012. Or Operation Pillar of Defense in Nov 2012. Or Operation Protective Edge in July 2014. Or Operation Black Belt in Nov 2019. Or Operation Breaking Dawn in Aug 2022. Or Operation Shield and Arrow in May of 2023. But they didn't because they didn't have your help to let them see that Hamas was a problem.
"Israel might end up being a permanent occupying force in the Strip". Another brilliant insight. Of course Israel might permanently occupy the Strip, as they did from 1967 to 2005. Why did Israel withdraw in 2005? Do you remember?
As long as Israel thinks that they can unilaterally decide that there will never be an independent state for the Palestinians then the Palestinians will have nothing to lose by launching terror attacks on Israel. Hamas is awful, yet Netenyahu seems determined to empower them by refusing to even talk to the PA on meaningful terms.
I know you, you’re the guy who considers himself the smartest person who has ever sent a post.
Eliminate Hamas, a process that is ongoing right now.
Disarm the population, give the people of Gaza a chance at a normal life. (This follows the elimination of Hamas.)
Answer your ringing phone, it is the UN wanting you to set up a committee - they are good at that and so will you be as well.
Nice steal.
Here I was, thinking 2023 is starting to ramp down without further surprises (on top of the already going things)…
Hamas might be counting on a massive Israeli response to upset the ongoing talks between US, Israel and the Saudis
Thank you. An excellent overview of shocking events, with good historical perspective.
Netanyahu should have known that in trying to end Israel's democracy he was sowing dragon's teeth. As Israel alienates itself from international and particularly US support (even among American Jews!) the resulting weakness invites these sorts of attacks.
For those of us who remember what an idealistic country Israel used to be, there is only sadness.
From a military perspective Hamas is likely to lose in a straight up fight with the IDF. But as you note, Mick, it is also a powerful political statement. At this point, no matter how Israel reacts, they are in a bad political/PR position. Netanyahu’s vision of Israel is seen as anti-democratic, and the next version of an apartheid regime around the world. If they hold back, they will be seen as weak and invite more Hamas action. If they respond with overwhelming force and inflict civilian casualties in Gaza and elsewhere as much as hitting Hamas, they will only dig themselves a deeper hole in world public opinion as enforcing an authoritarian, apartheid regime. So no matter the purely military outcome, they will lose further standing in the world making it a major political victory for Hamas either way.
Fair observation and certainly an analysis that Hamas will have carried out too. But the heart of the problem is Israel's recent unwillingness to see Palestinians as much more than wolves to be kept locked up. Israel is an island in an Arab land and rightfully (based on history) sees itself as surrounded; however, its own-goals on the Palestinian file are piling up and it is pretty clear now that to a fair degree it has itself to blame for such Palestinian acts.
Unfortunately, I have to agree with your assessment on how Israel has and continues to view Palestinians. Israel is at this point a failed state as a pluralistic democracy. Arab citizens and secular Jews are seen a problematic and second class citizens in the eyes of the current Netanyahu govt and coalition. This make me wonder how much Israel, once United in its survival, will be United by this Hamas action, or will society further splinter with finger pointing at Likud for being this on to the entire nation.
Did you hear that noise? It is the roar of international indignation, demanding that Israel stop the bloodshed against the oppressed Palestinians. Expect it in about 3 days time.
The other strategic objective, especially for Iran, is to try to derail the ongoing process of engagement and the normalizing of relations between Israel and the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia. All those states will have to publicly condemn Israel and support the Palestinians (I think Saudi Arabia already has). An Israeli ground incursion into Gaza, which I can't see them not doing, will exacerbate this. Iran is, of course, using Hamas and the Palestinians in this case to achieve its strategic objective of preventing a stronger Middle East coalition against it.
I only just found out about this due to your post. Mick, thank you for covering this.
I assume that the attack is also to shine the light back on the plight of Palestinians as more and more Arab gov'ts normalize relations with Israel, and turn their backs on the Palestianians whom they used to at least claim to care about.
Israel and the US supply military aid to Azerbaijan, which just conducted an ethnic cleansing of Christian Armenians: https://yuribezmenov.substack.com/p/artsakh-christian-armenian-genocide-azerbaijan
It was never a good idea for Jews to move en masse to the Middle East. It was never safe for us.
What I don’t understand is how Israel’s much-vaunted missile defence system appears to be relatively unsuccessful during this attack.
The boot is on the other foot now.
I think both feet are suffering from leprosy