Mick, I have only recently become a subscriber though I’ve followed you for years. A friend who is a former brigadier-general in the British Army and former defence attaché to Israel told me that the IDF is over-rated, that it’s sold the myth of its excellence and it is nowhere near as good as a NATO army. With such a high proportion of citizen soldiers and conscripts, let’s hope this doesn’t become a three-front war for the IDF. Do you think the IDF could render the tunnels uninhabitable long term for Hamas without going down into them, by say, filling them with tear gas? Sure, Hamas could acquire gas masks but they would quickly become unbearable
There are 500 miles of tunnels as of 2019, according to Hamas. Given their ability to evade detection, it clears that they DO have a very extensive tunnel network, so I would lean to assuming that they 500 miles of tunnels.
It isn't clear how well reinforced those tunnels are - I don't think Gaza has been allowed to import that much concrete. If you insert a large explosive package into a tunnel and manage to push it 500 feet from the entrace into the tunnel and detonate it, that section of tunnel will collapse. But lack of concrete reinforcement (and maybe even with thin reinforcement) means that the explosion won't funnel a long ways like the tunnel was a giant artillery tube. The collapse of the tunnel sides should muffle the detonation.
That's 500 feet of one tunnel in a network of 500 miles. It is likely Hamas has protective doors and the like, arms dumps set away from the main tunnels, isolated command posts, sleeping quarters, and also the hostages Israel wants back. If you destroy a section of tunnel near to an entrance then all you may accomplish is isolating your side from Hamas, effectively protecting Hamas.
Hamas has endured 3 rounds of 'mowing the grass operations'. What has actually been happening is that the IDF has been teaching Hamas how to build their tunnel networks to survive.
elm
the simple bomb everything flat isn't going to work - lots of regulars gazans may die, but Hamas will (and has!) survived that
Good summary, elm. A “shitsandswich”. I think though, that the IDF is fighting smart not hard. It is able to squeeze and squeeze and squeeze Hamas until the pips squeak, and they pop up to the surface and are killed. Trouble is, as always, it’s the foot soldiers who die: they need to go after the head of the snake, and to hell with the sensibilities of the Qataris or Lebanese
I simply don't see what the IDF is trying to accomplish here. It simply doesn't seem likely has actual good intelligence on Hamas tunnel systems. Not given Hamas ability to evade detection of the movement of their troops, and Hamas ability to communicate without detection. It seems obvious that Hamas is using their tunnel system as their main logistical, movement and communication arteries. It just isn't clear to me that Shin Bet has clear enough intelligence to justify focus all their efforts on Gaza City.
It also seems like it hasn't occurred to anyone that Hamas, knowing that their radio communications are going to be intercepted, has probably learned how to fool Israeli SIGINT with spurious messaging.
Cutting Gaza City off from the rest of the Strip makes sense. A main drive into the center of Gaza City seems like the most wasteful way to go about things. I cannot fathom what they're trying to do with the thrust from the northeast. Given the noises that have been emitted from the Israeli defense ministries over the last weeks, it seems highly likely that they are concieving of this as a hardcore 'mowing the grass operation'. Given the track record this seems almost certain to fail at achieving any long term goals. Hamas expects this kind of operation, after all.
The whole thing seems like an ill-concieved revenge raid which probably will result in the deaths of large numbers of civilians without coming anywhere close to destroying Hamas.
I agree with your assessment, elm. IDF and Shin Bet clearly have no good intel (SIGINT or HUMINT) regarding Hamas plans, tunnels. If they did, IDF would be handling this in a more surgical fashion rather than applying what appears to be a sledgehammer to a finishing nail. If they had the intel, 10/7 would not have happened.
Thus, another round of mowing the grass but this never gets at the roots and pulling them out as will fail yet again. So, what is IDF to do? They are playing right into Hamas’ hands. They are resorting to the only strategy they have know for the past 40 years. It will result in catastrophic civilian casualties and many IDF casualties. The only beneficiaries are the hardliners on both sides including Netanyahu who is using this to stay out of court and jail.
The problem isn't just a lack of intel, but its incorrect evaluation and categorisation. The best intel in the world is useless if it is not interpreted in the right way. That seems to have been one of the serious intelligence mistakes made by the IDF and the Shin Bet in relation to 10/7. Hamas had lulled them into complacency.
What would be useful is some articles looking at how Hamas can effectively defend Gaza considering the asymmetries in their relative strength and drawing on examples. Especially interesting would be some insights comparing how Hamas does it compared to equivalent western doctrine.
Mick, I have only recently become a subscriber though I’ve followed you for years. A friend who is a former brigadier-general in the British Army and former defence attaché to Israel told me that the IDF is over-rated, that it’s sold the myth of its excellence and it is nowhere near as good as a NATO army. With such a high proportion of citizen soldiers and conscripts, let’s hope this doesn’t become a three-front war for the IDF. Do you think the IDF could render the tunnels uninhabitable long term for Hamas without going down into them, by say, filling them with tear gas? Sure, Hamas could acquire gas masks but they would quickly become unbearable
Cannot the tunnels be imploded (and their current inhabitants killed) by suitable injections of dispersing explosive substances, a la fuel-air bombs?
There are 500 miles of tunnels as of 2019, according to Hamas. Given their ability to evade detection, it clears that they DO have a very extensive tunnel network, so I would lean to assuming that they 500 miles of tunnels.
It isn't clear how well reinforced those tunnels are - I don't think Gaza has been allowed to import that much concrete. If you insert a large explosive package into a tunnel and manage to push it 500 feet from the entrace into the tunnel and detonate it, that section of tunnel will collapse. But lack of concrete reinforcement (and maybe even with thin reinforcement) means that the explosion won't funnel a long ways like the tunnel was a giant artillery tube. The collapse of the tunnel sides should muffle the detonation.
That's 500 feet of one tunnel in a network of 500 miles. It is likely Hamas has protective doors and the like, arms dumps set away from the main tunnels, isolated command posts, sleeping quarters, and also the hostages Israel wants back. If you destroy a section of tunnel near to an entrance then all you may accomplish is isolating your side from Hamas, effectively protecting Hamas.
Hamas has endured 3 rounds of 'mowing the grass operations'. What has actually been happening is that the IDF has been teaching Hamas how to build their tunnel networks to survive.
elm
the simple bomb everything flat isn't going to work - lots of regulars gazans may die, but Hamas will (and has!) survived that
Good summary, elm. A “shitsandswich”. I think though, that the IDF is fighting smart not hard. It is able to squeeze and squeeze and squeeze Hamas until the pips squeak, and they pop up to the surface and are killed. Trouble is, as always, it’s the foot soldiers who die: they need to go after the head of the snake, and to hell with the sensibilities of the Qataris or Lebanese
I simply don't see what the IDF is trying to accomplish here. It simply doesn't seem likely has actual good intelligence on Hamas tunnel systems. Not given Hamas ability to evade detection of the movement of their troops, and Hamas ability to communicate without detection. It seems obvious that Hamas is using their tunnel system as their main logistical, movement and communication arteries. It just isn't clear to me that Shin Bet has clear enough intelligence to justify focus all their efforts on Gaza City.
It also seems like it hasn't occurred to anyone that Hamas, knowing that their radio communications are going to be intercepted, has probably learned how to fool Israeli SIGINT with spurious messaging.
Cutting Gaza City off from the rest of the Strip makes sense. A main drive into the center of Gaza City seems like the most wasteful way to go about things. I cannot fathom what they're trying to do with the thrust from the northeast. Given the noises that have been emitted from the Israeli defense ministries over the last weeks, it seems highly likely that they are concieving of this as a hardcore 'mowing the grass operation'. Given the track record this seems almost certain to fail at achieving any long term goals. Hamas expects this kind of operation, after all.
The whole thing seems like an ill-concieved revenge raid which probably will result in the deaths of large numbers of civilians without coming anywhere close to destroying Hamas.
elm
then there's the hostages
I agree with your assessment, elm. IDF and Shin Bet clearly have no good intel (SIGINT or HUMINT) regarding Hamas plans, tunnels. If they did, IDF would be handling this in a more surgical fashion rather than applying what appears to be a sledgehammer to a finishing nail. If they had the intel, 10/7 would not have happened.
Thus, another round of mowing the grass but this never gets at the roots and pulling them out as will fail yet again. So, what is IDF to do? They are playing right into Hamas’ hands. They are resorting to the only strategy they have know for the past 40 years. It will result in catastrophic civilian casualties and many IDF casualties. The only beneficiaries are the hardliners on both sides including Netanyahu who is using this to stay out of court and jail.
The problem isn't just a lack of intel, but its incorrect evaluation and categorisation. The best intel in the world is useless if it is not interpreted in the right way. That seems to have been one of the serious intelligence mistakes made by the IDF and the Shin Bet in relation to 10/7. Hamas had lulled them into complacency.
What would be useful is some articles looking at how Hamas can effectively defend Gaza considering the asymmetries in their relative strength and drawing on examples. Especially interesting would be some insights comparing how Hamas does it compared to equivalent western doctrine.