The Big Five - 10 April edition
A weekly guide to new readings on modern war and adapting to win
It has been another fascinating week in international security and modern warfare.
Another Russian plot to kill Ukrainian President Zelensky was unveiled by Ukrainian authorities. It was not the first and is unlikely to be the last. The Russians can’t stand having someone lead a nation that they deny exists who unifies his country and gains large amounts of foreign support. The Chinese will be learning from this for any future move against Taiwan.
The Russian offensives against Ukraine on the ground appear to have run out of steam for the time being, although this is probably a temporary situation. We should expect more Russian offensives in the east and north east in the coming months. Russia’s air, missile and drone attacks continue however.
In the Western Pacific, the PLA continues its systemic aggression against other nations. Dangerous and unprofessional conduct against Phillipino and Australian forces in the past week are just the latest examples.
Away from the fracture lines of international conflict, it is the time for big conferences in the U.S. Modern Day Marine and SOF week have been conducted, and next week is the Land Forces in the Pacific event in Hawaii (I am a panelist at one session).
In this weeks readings are a good mix of strategic affairs (Chinese nuclear theory, the lack of Australian strategic theorists), warfare (drones, counter-drone technology and AI) as well as the use of fiction to think about institutional futures.
As always, if you only have time to read one article, I recommend the first one.
Enjoy!
1. Russia and AI
The latest from Sam Bendett, an expert in drones, AI and their military applications, has just been released. The report is a summary of the latest developments, and is a great a reference document for anyone interested in major Russian thoughts and deliberations on AI in military operations. Sam’s analysis throughout the war in Ukraine has been superb, and I highly recommend this latest report from him. You can read the full document here.
2. China’s Nuclear Buildup
This is an interesting piece that explored possible motives for China’s expansion of its nuclear arsenal from around 200 warheads to 1000. The piece offers the argument that these are less military tools rather than strategic status symbols to bring China to a level pegging with the U.S. But as the author notes, the logic of this thinking is potentially flawed: “The notion that nuclear weapons possess extensive—almost magical—coercive power in and beyond the military realm is probably more a product of intuition than of rigorously examined logic and evidence…the highly centralized domestic power structure that Xi has established has prevented any serious evaluation of his guiding assumptions, leading instead to the rapid and unquestioning execution of his vision of China as a more robust nuclear power.” You can read the article here.
3. Marines Want More Drones and Drone Killers
The recently held Modern Day Marine event is always a terrific time to get updates on new U.S. Marine Corps initiatives. This year is no different. A range of programs weee announced with the top priority being the procurement of lots more drones and drone defence systems. The attached article provides a good insight into some of the new technoligies including miniature sensors that the Marines hope to mount on their new drones. Read the full article here.
4. Australia’s Deficient National Security Discourse
It is no national secret that Australia takes a minimalistic approach to public discussion about national security affairs. There are few think tanks that provide policy advice. Lowy and ASPI are about it, although the Australian National University also contributes. All of these are essentially IR institutions however and there is a total absence of war and military studies or a deeper exploration of conventional deterrence and civil-military theories. One outcome of this situation is that Australia has no published national security strategy (seriously). The shallowness of the discourse on national security in Australia is the focus of this piece from Liz Buchanan. You can read it here.
5. Marine Special Operators Use FICINT
Fictional Intelligence (FICINT) is a way to use narratives to prompt people to think differently about the future of their institutions. Ghost Fleet, and my book White Sun War, as just two examples of this genre of military writing. Now, the U.S. Marine Special Operations Command has employed FICINT to consider the missions, structures, people and equipment issues of the command out to 2040. You can read the full story of why and how they did this here.