My regular update on global conflict & confrontation. This week: Trump's peace overtures, Russia murders more PoWs, Ukraine strikes Russia again, N Korea's new troops & China's invasion barges.
Thank you. I am more and more concerned about the likelihood of a larger war in the next ~5 years, at this rate. Both in Europe and in Asia. And yes, Europe seems to still sleep.
By larger war, I commented on another substack, I fear that Russia will test Nato's resolve. I was very recently at a seminar with people from the Swiss Army, and the question asked was: There's a small town in the farthest north-east corner of Estonia - I think it was about Narva, but not entirely sure. The town has ~60% Russian or Russian-descent. At this rate, if in 2-3 years Russia simply moves in (let's assume they manage to do so undetected, for the purpose of the question), what will Nato's response be?
- will Estonia actually invoke clause 5, and will there be unanimous response?
- if yes, does that mean a NATO-Russia war?
- if not, is NATO losing its deterrence?
From where I am, this looks sadly like a reasonable question in 2025, whereas it would have been unthinkable for me in 2019. I mean, the question is _realistic_ now, given Russia's behaviour. It's not simply a theoretical question as it was before.
The seminar was about the Swiss Army readiness versus what the security situation in Europe is right now. That didn't make me sleep better either :)
Again, thank you for your articles. It really helps to see the situation from multiple points.
I cannot understand why it appears to be assumed USA is best placed to negotiate with Putin over Ukraine. Trump and his team have shown zero understanding of the Europe wide security concerns. I can think of not one single statement made by anyone in his team about the wider security concerns say Poland and the Baltic States face with a victorious Russia sitting on their border after war is frozen in Ukraine. Also the strategic interests of USA are not aligned with those of Europe. USA wants a quick fix so it can concentrate on the Pacific. That could condemn Eastern Europe to decades of misery or at best instability at the hands of Russia especially if the deal allows cash to pour into Russia for energy again. There is an opportunity here for Europe to deal with the Russian threat once and for all but USA and especially TrumpTeam are simply not the guys or girls you want in the room with Putin. Europe needs Ukrainians in the room, Poland in the room, Finland in the room to make sure any peace deal is not only one the Ukrainians can live with but aslo one which protects and stabilises the larger European theatre in a way that could not be done afterthought Second World War simply because the Red Army moved too far too fast in its victory over Germany. Russia has no troops on the ground outside Ukraine. European leaders and USA must be careful not to make the horrible mistake of treating Putins Russia in the same cold and calculated manner that Roosevelt and Churchill did when they sold Poland and the Baltic States down the river after WW2 in the face of USSR occupation.
Presidential Peacemaking - in this case almost an oxymoron.
Taxes & tariffs on Russian exports to the US are meaningless because of how little Russia exports to the US. Sanctions are already in place, although it would be possible to increase them or actually enforce those already in place.
Does Trump really think OPEC is going to increase production on his say so? The US does not rule the roost anymore than Russia does. Unless Trump has some influence on Saudi Arabia through his business interests I cannot see how this will work. It is more likely that Saudi Arabia holds the advantage in this relationship given how much the Saudi’s funded Trump’s re-election campaign.
Where he is correct is in the notion that NATO nations need to increase their defence spending. I do not think that a certain percentage is needed, as European members of NATO have to realise that their very survival will be at stake - what percentage is that worth?
Cannot afford to go on another Substack, but have some of what Sir Lawrence Freeman said and will follow some more if I can. He is right, Ukraine existence is at stake. Slava Ukraine.
Thanks for the introduction to the Feedman's SubStack.
No worries. It is excellent.
Thank you. I am more and more concerned about the likelihood of a larger war in the next ~5 years, at this rate. Both in Europe and in Asia. And yes, Europe seems to still sleep.
I think we are already in it. What we will see is the levels of violence escalate.
Ouch :(
By larger war, I commented on another substack, I fear that Russia will test Nato's resolve. I was very recently at a seminar with people from the Swiss Army, and the question asked was: There's a small town in the farthest north-east corner of Estonia - I think it was about Narva, but not entirely sure. The town has ~60% Russian or Russian-descent. At this rate, if in 2-3 years Russia simply moves in (let's assume they manage to do so undetected, for the purpose of the question), what will Nato's response be?
- will Estonia actually invoke clause 5, and will there be unanimous response?
- if yes, does that mean a NATO-Russia war?
- if not, is NATO losing its deterrence?
From where I am, this looks sadly like a reasonable question in 2025, whereas it would have been unthinkable for me in 2019. I mean, the question is _realistic_ now, given Russia's behaviour. It's not simply a theoretical question as it was before.
The seminar was about the Swiss Army readiness versus what the security situation in Europe is right now. That didn't make me sleep better either :)
Again, thank you for your articles. It really helps to see the situation from multiple points.
Thank you Mick.
You are very welcome.
I cannot understand why it appears to be assumed USA is best placed to negotiate with Putin over Ukraine. Trump and his team have shown zero understanding of the Europe wide security concerns. I can think of not one single statement made by anyone in his team about the wider security concerns say Poland and the Baltic States face with a victorious Russia sitting on their border after war is frozen in Ukraine. Also the strategic interests of USA are not aligned with those of Europe. USA wants a quick fix so it can concentrate on the Pacific. That could condemn Eastern Europe to decades of misery or at best instability at the hands of Russia especially if the deal allows cash to pour into Russia for energy again. There is an opportunity here for Europe to deal with the Russian threat once and for all but USA and especially TrumpTeam are simply not the guys or girls you want in the room with Putin. Europe needs Ukrainians in the room, Poland in the room, Finland in the room to make sure any peace deal is not only one the Ukrainians can live with but aslo one which protects and stabilises the larger European theatre in a way that could not be done afterthought Second World War simply because the Red Army moved too far too fast in its victory over Germany. Russia has no troops on the ground outside Ukraine. European leaders and USA must be careful not to make the horrible mistake of treating Putins Russia in the same cold and calculated manner that Roosevelt and Churchill did when they sold Poland and the Baltic States down the river after WW2 in the face of USSR occupation.
Presidential Peacemaking - in this case almost an oxymoron.
Taxes & tariffs on Russian exports to the US are meaningless because of how little Russia exports to the US. Sanctions are already in place, although it would be possible to increase them or actually enforce those already in place.
Does Trump really think OPEC is going to increase production on his say so? The US does not rule the roost anymore than Russia does. Unless Trump has some influence on Saudi Arabia through his business interests I cannot see how this will work. It is more likely that Saudi Arabia holds the advantage in this relationship given how much the Saudi’s funded Trump’s re-election campaign.
Where he is correct is in the notion that NATO nations need to increase their defence spending. I do not think that a certain percentage is needed, as European members of NATO have to realise that their very survival will be at stake - what percentage is that worth?
Cannot afford to go on another Substack, but have some of what Sir Lawrence Freeman said and will follow some more if I can. He is right, Ukraine existence is at stake. Slava Ukraine.