My regular update on global conflict & confrontation. This week: Trump's peace overtures, Russia murders more PoWs, Ukraine strikes Russia again, N Korea's new troops & China's invasion barges.
Thank you. I am more and more concerned about the likelihood of a larger war in the next ~5 years, at this rate. Both in Europe and in Asia. And yes, Europe seems to still sleep.
By larger war, I commented on another substack, I fear that Russia will test Nato's resolve. I was very recently at a seminar with people from the Swiss Army, and the question asked was: There's a small town in the farthest north-east corner of Estonia - I think it was about Narva, but not entirely sure. The town has ~60% Russian or Russian-descent. At this rate, if in 2-3 years Russia simply moves in (let's assume they manage to do so undetected, for the purpose of the question), what will Nato's response be?
- will Estonia actually invoke clause 5, and will there be unanimous response?
- if yes, does that mean a NATO-Russia war?
- if not, is NATO losing its deterrence?
From where I am, this looks sadly like a reasonable question in 2025, whereas it would have been unthinkable for me in 2019. I mean, the question is _realistic_ now, given Russia's behaviour. It's not simply a theoretical question as it was before.
The seminar was about the Swiss Army readiness versus what the security situation in Europe is right now. That didn't make me sleep better either :)
Again, thank you for your articles. It really helps to see the situation from multiple points.
Thanks for the introduction to the Feedman's SubStack.
No worries. It is excellent.
Thank you. I am more and more concerned about the likelihood of a larger war in the next ~5 years, at this rate. Both in Europe and in Asia. And yes, Europe seems to still sleep.
I think we are already in it. What we will see is the levels of violence escalate.
Ouch :(
By larger war, I commented on another substack, I fear that Russia will test Nato's resolve. I was very recently at a seminar with people from the Swiss Army, and the question asked was: There's a small town in the farthest north-east corner of Estonia - I think it was about Narva, but not entirely sure. The town has ~60% Russian or Russian-descent. At this rate, if in 2-3 years Russia simply moves in (let's assume they manage to do so undetected, for the purpose of the question), what will Nato's response be?
- will Estonia actually invoke clause 5, and will there be unanimous response?
- if yes, does that mean a NATO-Russia war?
- if not, is NATO losing its deterrence?
From where I am, this looks sadly like a reasonable question in 2025, whereas it would have been unthinkable for me in 2019. I mean, the question is _realistic_ now, given Russia's behaviour. It's not simply a theoretical question as it was before.
The seminar was about the Swiss Army readiness versus what the security situation in Europe is right now. That didn't make me sleep better either :)
Again, thank you for your articles. It really helps to see the situation from multiple points.
Thank you Mick.
You are very welcome.