My regular update on conflict and confrontation in Ukraine, the Middle East and the Pacific, accompanied by recommended readings on modern war and future conflict.
I would like to think that Trump would listen to the experts when it comes to issues such as Ukraine. Unfortunately he has a history of dismissing anyone who does not agree with him. This is what happened during his first administration, I have not seen anything that will change in his second administration. If I was Lieutenant General Kellog (Ret) I wouldn’t be giving up my day job, Trump will soon get rid of him if he doesn’t like what he is being told.
If I was Ukraine I would also not be relying on anything positive coming from Trump and hopefully Europe too will be taking the necessary precautions and be prepared for a Trump administration that will cut them loose in favour of closer ties with Putin. Trump is a wannabe autocrat and probably feels he has more in common with the likes of Putin than the leaders of the EU.
I hope I’m wrong, roll on 20th January.
Ukraine has to insist on membership with NATO, it is it’s only means of guaranteeing it’s future security. Russia won’t like it it, but no one will trust them with any lesser agreement. Perhaps not basing NATO troops on Ukrainian soil could make it more palatable for Russia.
Russia should not be allowed to retain Ukrainian territory. The idea that ownership of these territories could be resolved diplomatically at a later date does have some appeal, but besides kicking the can down the road, Russia will use the time to repopulate these territories with it’s own people, so that any future referendums will favour Russia. Russia has used this ploy in Crimea and the Baltic states in the past, what is to stop them doing it again.
It must also be remembered that expulsion of local populations and replacing them with Russian’s has taken place many times in Russia’s past. Putin may not be around to see it, but Russia will continue with this practice.
Will Ukraine be able to overcome heating and power issues this winter? If it is some consolation Russia will also be facing the same issues or worse this winter - entirely self inflicted.
It may be that the Ukrainian Armed Forces is in the process of making new brigades for possible new offensives. Given the Russian advances of the last few weeks, wouldn’t it be better to use these new recruits to reinforce the lines facing Russian’s. This would allow the seasoned troops to pass on battlefield experience to newer troops. Is part of the reason for the failure of the Ukrainian offensive last year due to the lack of experience of the new brigades?
They may not all be singing from the same hymn sheet, but Putin and his allies are all tarred with same brush. Any pressure that can be put on Putin via his adventures in Syria will impact his relations with Iran (plus Hezbollah and the Houthis) and affect support for operations in Ukraine. The US has to maintain and increase all sanctions on Russia. Only this will hasten the end of Iranian co-operation with Russia. North Korea will retreat into its shell and leaving only China to review its position in relation to co-operation with Russia.
Israel’s offensive into Lebanon is entirely understandable. UNFIL’s inability to control Hezbollah’s forces in southern Lebanon is a glaring issue. It must be given the means and the ability to carry out UN Resolution 1701. If not, then it is a case of wash, rinse, repeat.
Thank you, this is as always a good summary of the week!
I would like to think that Trump would listen to the experts when it comes to issues such as Ukraine. Unfortunately he has a history of dismissing anyone who does not agree with him. This is what happened during his first administration, I have not seen anything that will change in his second administration. If I was Lieutenant General Kellog (Ret) I wouldn’t be giving up my day job, Trump will soon get rid of him if he doesn’t like what he is being told.
If I was Ukraine I would also not be relying on anything positive coming from Trump and hopefully Europe too will be taking the necessary precautions and be prepared for a Trump administration that will cut them loose in favour of closer ties with Putin. Trump is a wannabe autocrat and probably feels he has more in common with the likes of Putin than the leaders of the EU.
I hope I’m wrong, roll on 20th January.
Ukraine has to insist on membership with NATO, it is it’s only means of guaranteeing it’s future security. Russia won’t like it it, but no one will trust them with any lesser agreement. Perhaps not basing NATO troops on Ukrainian soil could make it more palatable for Russia.
Russia should not be allowed to retain Ukrainian territory. The idea that ownership of these territories could be resolved diplomatically at a later date does have some appeal, but besides kicking the can down the road, Russia will use the time to repopulate these territories with it’s own people, so that any future referendums will favour Russia. Russia has used this ploy in Crimea and the Baltic states in the past, what is to stop them doing it again.
It must also be remembered that expulsion of local populations and replacing them with Russian’s has taken place many times in Russia’s past. Putin may not be around to see it, but Russia will continue with this practice.
Will Ukraine be able to overcome heating and power issues this winter? If it is some consolation Russia will also be facing the same issues or worse this winter - entirely self inflicted.
It may be that the Ukrainian Armed Forces is in the process of making new brigades for possible new offensives. Given the Russian advances of the last few weeks, wouldn’t it be better to use these new recruits to reinforce the lines facing Russian’s. This would allow the seasoned troops to pass on battlefield experience to newer troops. Is part of the reason for the failure of the Ukrainian offensive last year due to the lack of experience of the new brigades?
They may not all be singing from the same hymn sheet, but Putin and his allies are all tarred with same brush. Any pressure that can be put on Putin via his adventures in Syria will impact his relations with Iran (plus Hezbollah and the Houthis) and affect support for operations in Ukraine. The US has to maintain and increase all sanctions on Russia. Only this will hasten the end of Iranian co-operation with Russia. North Korea will retreat into its shell and leaving only China to review its position in relation to co-operation with Russia.
Israel’s offensive into Lebanon is entirely understandable. UNFIL’s inability to control Hezbollah’s forces in southern Lebanon is a glaring issue. It must be given the means and the ability to carry out UN Resolution 1701. If not, then it is a case of wash, rinse, repeat.