Xi will be borderline suicidal if he thinks he can invade Taiwan and survive. The only reason china has been able to prosper the last two decades is due to American policing of global shipping basically for free as long as we all behave. If China is unable to import energy and food inputs die to a shipping embargo they will lose half the…
Xi will be borderline suicidal if he thinks he can invade Taiwan and survive. The only reason china has been able to prosper the last two decades is due to American policing of global shipping basically for free as long as we all behave. If China is unable to import energy and food inputs die to a shipping embargo they will lose half their population within 12 months. Many don’t realise how vulnerable China is and dependent on the world for its existence. Check out Peter Zeihan for his geopolitical analysis of China and others. Very insightful. https://youtube.com/@ZeihanonGeopolitics
Jason, I do not disagree with you on this calculus. But thinking about a full blown naval blockade of China is daunting, and there will be other ways to get food and fuel into China. We do not see a blockade of Russian ports to halt the export of oil which would hurt more than the current regime of price caps.
Xi will be borderline suicidal if he thinks he can invade Taiwan and survive. The only reason china has been able to prosper the last two decades is due to American policing of global shipping basically for free as long as we all behave. If China is unable to import energy and food inputs die to a shipping embargo they will lose half their population within 12 months. Many don’t realise how vulnerable China is and dependent on the world for its existence. Check out Peter Zeihan for his geopolitical analysis of China and others. Very insightful. https://youtube.com/@ZeihanonGeopolitics
Jason, I do not disagree with you on this calculus. But thinking about a full blown naval blockade of China is daunting, and there will be other ways to get food and fuel into China. We do not see a blockade of Russian ports to halt the export of oil which would hurt more than the current regime of price caps.
Russia is very different they are a net energy and good exporter. China is totally dependent on imports via sea.