Great thoughts on the information environment, Mick. The more transparent and empirical information/data all have the better is decision making on all sides which reduces the risk of miscalculation and/or decisions based on faulty assumptions. This is the value of the civil/military sensor network. The issue of decapitation of the government leadership for fear of a Taiwanese Zelenskyy should be far more difficult for the PLA given water and geographic distance. But the real question is will Taiwan stand up and not be cowed by fear, just as Zelenskyy and his government did? Part of Russia’s strategy assumed that fear. When it did not happen...we know the rest. Will China and the PLA have learned the lesson that it cannot be assumed and assured that Taiwan will collapse and not fight effectively? Russia made this terrible assumption and has paid the price.
Lastly, is China willing to pay the high cost of such an adventure? The more Xi cracks down, the more apparent it becomes there is discontent. The economic base while strong in manufacturing, is weak otherwise. It depends on being a part of the global economy, and invading Taiwan would hurt China as much as its trading partners.
Xi will be borderline suicidal if he thinks he can invade Taiwan and survive. The only reason china has been able to prosper the last two decades is due to American policing of global shipping basically for free as long as we all behave. If China is unable to import energy and food inputs die to a shipping embargo they will lose half their population within 12 months. Many don’t realise how vulnerable China is and dependent on the world for its existence. Check out Peter Zeihan for his geopolitical analysis of China and others. Very insightful. https://youtube.com/@ZeihanonGeopolitics
Jason, I do not disagree with you on this calculus. But thinking about a full blown naval blockade of China is daunting, and there will be other ways to get food and fuel into China. We do not see a blockade of Russian ports to halt the export of oil which would hurt more than the current regime of price caps.
Given China’s long term views and relative (compared to the U.S., Australia and much of the western world) strategic patience, my guess is that Xi will be investing considerable effort in influencing the outcomes of the next couple of Taiwanese national elections to undermine Taiwan’s leadership before embarking on a direct assault on Taiwan.
Alternatively, he may go much earlier if he assesses that the west cannot effectively support two major regional wars simultaneously.
Great thoughts on the information environment, Mick. The more transparent and empirical information/data all have the better is decision making on all sides which reduces the risk of miscalculation and/or decisions based on faulty assumptions. This is the value of the civil/military sensor network. The issue of decapitation of the government leadership for fear of a Taiwanese Zelenskyy should be far more difficult for the PLA given water and geographic distance. But the real question is will Taiwan stand up and not be cowed by fear, just as Zelenskyy and his government did? Part of Russia’s strategy assumed that fear. When it did not happen...we know the rest. Will China and the PLA have learned the lesson that it cannot be assumed and assured that Taiwan will collapse and not fight effectively? Russia made this terrible assumption and has paid the price.
Lastly, is China willing to pay the high cost of such an adventure? The more Xi cracks down, the more apparent it becomes there is discontent. The economic base while strong in manufacturing, is weak otherwise. It depends on being a part of the global economy, and invading Taiwan would hurt China as much as its trading partners.
Xi will be borderline suicidal if he thinks he can invade Taiwan and survive. The only reason china has been able to prosper the last two decades is due to American policing of global shipping basically for free as long as we all behave. If China is unable to import energy and food inputs die to a shipping embargo they will lose half their population within 12 months. Many don’t realise how vulnerable China is and dependent on the world for its existence. Check out Peter Zeihan for his geopolitical analysis of China and others. Very insightful. https://youtube.com/@ZeihanonGeopolitics
Jason, I do not disagree with you on this calculus. But thinking about a full blown naval blockade of China is daunting, and there will be other ways to get food and fuel into China. We do not see a blockade of Russian ports to halt the export of oil which would hurt more than the current regime of price caps.
Russia is very different they are a net energy and good exporter. China is totally dependent on imports via sea.
Given China’s long term views and relative (compared to the U.S., Australia and much of the western world) strategic patience, my guess is that Xi will be investing considerable effort in influencing the outcomes of the next couple of Taiwanese national elections to undermine Taiwan’s leadership before embarking on a direct assault on Taiwan.
Alternatively, he may go much earlier if he assesses that the west cannot effectively support two major regional wars simultaneously.