Merry Christmas

I wish for a more peaceful 2024 - but don’t expect that to happen

Image: YHA.com.au

Before I take a short break, I wanted to wish all my readers a very Merry Christmas and a happy new year.

This year we have witnessed the failed Russian 2023 offensive, which began in January, as well as the unsuccessful Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south. The Ukrainians have had more success with their strategic strike program in Russia and the Black Sea, improving their air defence system and holding off Russian attacks in the east of the country. But, the stalled aid package in the U.S. Congress casts somewhat of a pall over the war. Ukrainians, now under nightly attack by Russian drones and missiles will go into the new year uncertain about U.S. support and nervous about the coming presidential election season.

The events on 7 October in southern Israel have proved to be an earthquake which continues to ripple through the Middle East. The horrific Hamas attacks of that day resulted in massive Israeli mobilisation and the ongoing operations in Gaza. Operations are also being conducted along Israel’s northern border, and terrorists throughout the region are attacking U.S. bases in the ground and merchant ships at sea. As I wrote in the wake of my recent visit to Israel, this is going to be a long war.

And, lest we forget, China continues its global influence operations to subvert democracy wherever it exists, while also conducting a continuous campaign of coercion and bullying against Taiwan, as well as other nations in the region. Xi has been very open about his aspirations to integrate the vibrant and democratic Taiwan into his realm, and to reshape the Indo-Pacific to suit China’s interests. It is still not clear whether western leaders are listening.

2023 as been a hectic year personally. I have published another book - White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan - and finished another, The War for Ukraine (published in 2024). I have also published over 100 articles here at Futura Doctrina as well as in The Economist, Foreign Affairs, the Sydney Morning Herald, and ABC Australia.

My travel to conduct research has also kept me busy. This year I have travelled to Ukraine, Poland, the UK, the U.S., Israel and Taiwan. Each of these visits have provided good insights into my study of modern and future war, and I have been privileged meet some amazing people.

I have also travelled domestically and taught at the Australian Defence College and given presentations to the Australian Army’s 2nd Division and several combat brigades.

I look forward to another busy year in 2024, and sharing my analysis with you all.

Until then, my thoughts and prayers are with those who defend us and who right now are risking their lives to defend their nations, and the democratic world, from terrorists and aggressive authoritarian nations.