The Big Five - 7 July edition

My regular guide to readings on modern war and adapting to win

It has been a big week for defence and national security events around the world.

First, the China's President Xi Jinping and Russia's Vladimir Putin attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in the Kazakh capital of Astana. Both advocated for closer security, political and economic links between countries of Eurasia to counter Western alliances and influence.

Reports also emerged this week of Chinese and Russian companies allegedly beginning co-development this year of an attack drone similar to the Iranian Shahed uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) that has been deployed in the thousands by Russia against Ukrainian targets. Last year, a Chinese defence company unveiled an attack drone which it called the Sunflower 200.

It was a big week for elections as the results of the 1st round of voting in the French election began to emerge. The second round commences today and after that we will have a better sense of the new makeup of the French national assembly with far-right RN leader Jordan Bardella a strong possibility to become the new Prime Minister. There will be an impact on Ukraine support. While French President Macron has been a big supporter of Ukraine, Bardella is less so. He may reduce French support, including stopping provision of long-range weapons.

And of course, Britain went to the polls and elected a new Prime Minister. It is a very quick transition of power in the wake of an election in the UK, with Prime Minister Starmer already in the seat and getting down to business. He is known as an Ukraine supporter and is expected to continue Britain’s strong support including the negotiation of a long-term security agreement with Kyiv. The full list of ministers in the new British government can be found here.

In Ukraine, Russia continued its 2024 offensives in eastern Ukraine. They continue to make minor territorial gains although are coming at the cost of massive casualties. Indeed, the last couple of months have seen the highest daily casualty rates for the Russians in the entire war. I examined this issue in my article on Russian progress (or otherwise) in Ukraine earlier this week.

While these territorial gains are coming at huge cost to the Russians, the Russians are having more success with their attacks on the Ukrainian power network and the power generation industry. Blackouts continue to be an issue and are likely to impact Ukraine for some time to come.

Finally, this week saw the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited Kyiv. He called for a rapid move to peace negotiations, and then immediately departed for a visit with his very good friend, Vladimir Putin, in Moscow.

This week’s readings cover a variety of topics. Space capability features twice, with a good report on global counter-space capabilities as well as an interesting article on the effects of nuclear weapon being detonated in orbit around the earth. There is a good article on the continuing utility of aircraft carriers and one from the Modern War Institute on the integration of uncrewed aerial systems.

As always, if you only have time to read one article, I recommend the first one in the list below.

Happy reading!

1. Counter-Space Capabilities Around the World

More and more countries and private companies are getting involved in space. While for decades the number of countries with military satellites was a reasonably small club, the changing economics and miniaturisation of satellites as seen an increasing number of nations are beginning to use space to improve their military and national security capabilities. This has also resulted in many countries developing sovereign counterspace capabilities to disrupt, degrade and destroy space-based systems. You can read the 2024 report on this subject here.

2. An Ode to Aircraft Carriers

In this piece, Admiral Paparo (now the commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii) writes an ode to aircraft carriers. In his article, he notes that “Aircraft carriers are indispensable combat platforms. With their air wings, these mighty, mobile, maritime air bases offer a unique combination of versatility and force, enabling the nation to project air power across the globe without the constraints of basing rights and geopolitical borders.” While they also have an array of vulnerabilities in the modern battlespace, the article is worth a read and is available here.

3. Nukes in Space

The threat posed to terrestrial communications, and just about any device with a computer chip, from a nuclear detonation in space has been known every since the American detonated five weapons in space, including the Starfish Prime test in 1962. There have been an array of open source examinations of potential impacts, including Annie Jacobsen’s recent book on nuclear war and this article from Scientific American. The latest piece, from the Washington Post, features useful infographics and can be read here.

4. The Orchestration of UAVs

The massive explosion in the development and employment of drones across the land, air and maritime drones in the past two years continues to accelerate. One of the big challenges for drone operators at the moment is the integration of human teams with uncrewed systems, and the integration of multiple drones into a unified system on the battlefield. This useful article from the Modern War Institute covers a case study from the IDF on this issue.

5. The Rules of America-China Military Interaction

Some analysts are concerned that there is a heightened risk of a clash between US and Chinese forces in the western Pacific because of a lack of guidelines over the interaction of aircraft and ships in international waters. This Foreign Affairs article explores the subject, noting that “in 2014, Beijing and Washington had adopted a memorandum of understanding that set down rules of behavior for ships and aircraft of the two sides. But former American officials involved in the document now scoff at it. Both sides have routinely flouted the rules and have referred to them only when it has been politically expedient to do so.” You can read the full article here.